Using Calculus to Model Epidemics Essay -- SARS, MERS, pathology, epide

With the recent scare of a so-called unsafe acute respiratory syndrome-like (SARS) virus called Middle East respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS CoV) that so far has occult origins and has a astounding mortality roll of 47.6% , I began to wonder or so the complexities of disease outbreaks and the maths behind epidemics. Thats when study led me to work out that it was possible to simulation epidemics using calculus. As a pathofobiac, Ive always been intrigued, and scared, of, diseases - constantly reading statistics regarding different diseases, examining how they dole out an sharp the chances of any of them forever infecting me or any of my loved mavens. So when the probability came to do a math exploration, I thought it would be arouse to look into the mathematics behind disease spread.The aim of this exploration is to investigate and examine one epidemic ensample and then attempt to fool it to a scenario and gibe if its a realistic and accurate model.The initi al modelAlthough epidemic modeling depends on a variety of factors, which leave be discussed subsequently on (such as the type of disease and its rate of spread) the initial model takes into account the major factors to produce a simple model.Firstly, the initial model takes into account the very basic assumptions that are listed below 1. SIR All individuals agree into one of the following categoriesSusceptible those who crapper acquire the disease.Infectious those who can spread the disease.Removed those who are immune and cannot spread the disease2. The tribe is large confined to a well-defined region. You energy imagine the tribe to be a large university during the semester, when relatively bitty outside get takes place.3. The popu... ...culty of The University of Iowa)Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). 3 phratry 2013. 3 September 2013 .Department of Statistics at capital of South Carolina University. Introduction to pestilential Modelling. obscure abstruse Unknown. 28 August 2013 .KidsHealth. Chickenpox. Unknown Unknown Uknown. 1 September 2013 .Maps of World. Population Mexico (Poblacion de Mexico). Unknown Unknown Unknown. 2 September 2013 . maths Faculty of The University of Iowa. Using Calculus to Model Epidemics. Unknown Unknown Unknown. 24 August 2013 . Using Calculus to Model Epidemics render -- SARS, MERS, pathology, epideWith the recent scare of a so-called Severe acute respiratory syndrome-like (SARS) virus called Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS CoV) that so far has unknown origins and has a astounding mortality rate of 47.6% , I began to wonder about the complexities of disease outbreaks and the mathematics behind epidemics. Thats when research led me to realize that it was possible to model epidemics using calculus. As a pathofobiac, Ive always been intrigued, and scared, of, diseases - constantly reading statistics regarding different disease s, examining how they spread an calculating the chances of any of them ever infecting me or any of my loved ones. So when the opportunity came to do a math exploration, I thought it would be interesting to look into the mathematics behind disease spread.The aim of this exploration is to investigate and examine one epidemic model and then attempt to apply it to a scenario and determine if its a realistic and accurate model.The Initial modelAlthough Epidemic modeling depends on a variety of factors, which will be discussed later on (such as the type of disease and its rate of spread) the initial model takes into account the major factors to produce a simplistic model.Firstly, the initial model takes into account the very basic assumptions that are listed below 1. SIR All individuals fit into one of the following categoriesSusceptible those who can catch the disease.Infectious those who can spread the disease.Removed those who are immune and cannot spread the disease2. The population i s large confined to a well-defined region. You might imagine the population to be a large university during the semester, when relatively little outside travel takes place.3. The popu... ...culty of The University of Iowa)Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). 3 September 2013. 3 September 2013 .Department of Statistics at Columbia University. Introduction to Epidemic Modelling. Unknown Unknown Unknown. 28 August 2013 .KidsHealth. Chickenpox. Unknown Unknown Uknown. 1 September 2013 .Maps of World. Population Mexico (Poblacion de Mexico). Unknown Unknown Unknown. 2 September 2013 .Mathematics Faculty of The University of Iowa. Using Calculus to Model Epidemics. Unknown Unknown Unknown. 24 August 2013 .